Economic commentary: Accommodation market starts the year with strong growth

TALLINN - In January 2026, nearly 396,000 nights were spent in Estonian accommodation establishments with at least five beds, an increase of 7.5 percent compared to January 2025 and 0.3 percent more than in the same month of 2019.

The number of accommodated guests reached 217,000, a six percent increase from the previous year and 4.2 percent more than in the pre-crisis period of January 2019.

According to Aleksandr Michelson, a tourism advisor at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, the beginning of the year indicates that the accommodation market is experiencing stable growth.

January's results were bolstered by both domestic and international tourism. Nights spent by Estonian residents totaled 194,800, which is 7.4 percent more than in January last year and a significant 25.5 percent more than in January 2019. Foreign visitors accounted for 201,100 overnight stays, a 7.6 percent increase from a year ago, though still 16 percent below pre-crisis levels. The number of accommodated domestic tourists grew to 117,600 (up 7.4 percent), while foreign tourists numbered 99,500 (up 4.3 percent). "The number of foreign tourists in January has been growing for several consecutive years, which indicates a consistent strengthening of foreign demand and Estonia's strong position in various target markets," noted Michelson.

Tallinn was the clear driver of growth in January. The capital recorded 215,000 overnight stays, which is 9.5 percent more than in January 2025 and nine percent more than in the same month of 2019. The number of guests reached 108,000, an increase of 7.3 percent year-on-year and 5.6 percent compared to 2019. More than half of all accommodation nights in Estonia in January were spent in Tallinn, highlighting the capital's continued strong role as a destination for city breaks, events, and business travel.

Positive signals also came from other parts of Estonia. In Tartu County and the city of Tartu, the number of overnight stays grew by 22 percent, indicating that another major urban destination, besides the capital, is also experiencing strong growth. The number of overnight stays increased by 20 percent in Saare County and 11 percent in Valga County. Among smaller counties, Polva County stood out with a 25 percent increase in overnight stays.

Meanwhile, the supply in the accommodation market continues to grow. In January 2026, there were 49,660 beds in Estonian accommodation establishments with at least five bed places, and 20,676 in Tallinn. Both figures represent a historical record for January. The overall bed occupancy rate in Estonia rose to 26 percent in January, bringing the market back to levels similar to those of January 2015-2019. The average price per night per person remained the same as in January 2025: 45 euros in Estonia and 46 euros in Tallinn. According to Michelson, this is a good combination. "Supply is at a record high and occupancy is rising. Although the price level remained the same year-on-year, it has increased in the long term. This shows that demand remains strong even with an expanded supply, and the sector has the capacity to accommodate more visitors."

In terms of source countries, Finland remained the largest foreign market in January with 54,700 overnight stays, although this figure was on par with the previous year. The Latvian market showed very strong growth, accounting for 31,000 overnight stays (+14 percent). Good growth numbers were also seen from Poland (+19 percent), Spain (+32 percent), Norway (+31 percent), the United Kingdom (+4.3 percent), and the United States (+25 percent). Meanwhile, Germany (-4 percent) and Sweden (-4.6 percent) showed weaker results. According to Michelson, an increasingly diverse picture of foreign markets is emerging. "In addition to nearby markets, more distant ones are also contributing more to growth. This helps reduce dependence on single source countries and ultimately makes Estonia's tourism demand more resilient," Michelson added.

In summary, January 2026 shows that the Estonian accommodation market began the year on a stronger footing than the last: the numbers of guests and overnight stays grew very rapidly, and a record supply of beds provides room for further growth. Domestic tourism remains a solid foundation, Tallinn continues to drive the market, and several counties are showing fresh momentum even outside the traditional peak seasons.